【全非资讯·肯尼亚】 肯尼亚财政部将2026年经济增长预期从5.3%下调至5%

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内罗毕 - 国家财政部预计，尽管面临全球不确定性，但在通胀缓和、结构性改革以及私营部门投资增加的支撑下，肯尼亚经济将在2026年实现5%的增长。\n\n财政部常务秘书Chris Kiptoo表示，预计2027年经济增速将升至5.1%，2028年将达到5.2%。\n\n不过，财政部将2026年的经济增长预期从5.3%下调，主要由于中东冲突造成的影响推高了全球燃料价格、扰乱了供应链并削弱了外部需求。\n\n在启动2027/28财年预算编制程序期间，Kiptoo表示，农业、金融服务、制造业、建筑业和旅游业依然是支撑经济增长的主要动力。\n\n2026年第一季度经济增长了5.3%，其中在国际游客到访量增加的带动下，住宿和餐饮服务业增速最快，达到14.7%。\n\n在水泥、食糖、牛奶、软饮料以及本地组装汽车产量增加的推动下，制造业也创下了近年来的最佳表现。\n\nKiptoo表示，宏观经济状况持续改善，中央银行基准利率从2024年的13%降至8.75%，商业贷款利率有所下调，私营部门信贷增长加速至9.3%，资金主要流向农业、贸易和建筑业。

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原文原文 / Original Text

Nairobi — The National Treasury expects Kenya's economy to grow by 5 percent in 2026 despite global uncertainties, supported by easing inflation, structural reforms and increased private sector investment.

Treasury Principal Secretary Chris Kiptoo said growth is projected to rise to 5.1 percent in 2027 and 5.2 percent in 2028.

The Treasury, however, revised its 2026 growth forecast down from 5.3 percent, citing disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict, which pushed up global fuel prices, disrupted supply chains and weakened external demand.

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Speaking during the launch of the 2027/28 budget preparation process, Kiptoo said the economy remains supported by agriculture, financial services, manufacturing, construction and tourism.

The economy expanded by 5.3 percent in the first quarter of 2026, with accommodation and food services recording the fastest growth at 14.7 percent on the back of increased international tourist arrivals.

Manufacturing also posted its strongest performance in recent years, driven by higher production of cement, sugar, milk, soft drinks and locally assembled vehicles.

Kiptoo said macroeconomic conditions have continued to improve, with the Central Bank Rate falling to 8.75 percent from 13 percent in 2024, while commercial lending rates have eased and private sector credit growth accelerated to 9.3 percent, particularly in agriculture, trade and construction.

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