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#肯尼亚 #东非 #非洲
中文导读
内罗毕——由于中东冲突对全球能源市场的影响以及燃料成本的上涨，政府已将肯尼亚2026年经济增长预期下调至5%，较此前的预测5.3%有所降低。
在议会公布2026/27财年预算时，财政部长约翰·姆巴迪表示，因伊朗、以色列和美国卷入冲突而引发的高能源价格预计将抑制经济活动，尤其是在依赖燃料的运输、制造和物流等行业。
财政部最初预计2026年经济将增长5.3%，得益于强劲的农业表现、服务业复苏，以及政府“自下而上经济转型议程”（BETA）下的改革举措。
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尽管遭遇评级下调，Mbadi 表示，该国经济预计将出现复苏，预计 2027 年增长率将反弹至 5.2%。
修订后的预测正值通胀压力持续累积之际。肯尼亚5年同比通胀率升至6.7%，较4月的5.6%有所提高，主要受食品、交通和能源成本上升推动。
这一增幅主要归因于中东冲突及霍尔木兹海峡周边紧张局势导致的全球石油供应链中断，而霍尔木兹海峡是全球石油运输的关键通道。
这一影响在本地已通过燃油价格上涨有所体现。4月份，每升汽油价格从178.28先令上涨至206.97先令，随后在最近一次燃油调整中进一步升至214.25先令。
经济学家警告称，如果全球供应中断持续，持续的能源价格高企可能拖累消费支出，削减企业盈利能力，并对整体经济增长造成压力。
原文原文 / Original TextNairobi — The government has revised Kenya's 2026 economic growth forecast downward to 5 percent from the earlier projection of 5.3 percent, citing the impact of the Middle East conflict on global energy markets and rising fuel costs.
Presenting the 2026/27 Budget in Parliament, Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi said higher energy prices triggered by the conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States are expected to weigh on economic activity, particularly in fuel-dependent sectors such as transport, manufacturing and logistics.
The Treasury had initially projected the economy to expand by 5.3 percent in 2026, supported by strong agricultural performance, a recovery in the services sector and the implementation of reforms under the government's Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA).
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However, the latest outlook reflects growing concerns over global economic uncertainty and the effects of elevated oil prices on domestic inflation and business costs.
Despite the downgrade, Mbadi said the economy is expected to recover, with growth projected to rebound to 5.2 percent in 2027.
The revised forecast comes as inflationary pressures continue to build. Kenya's annual inflation rate rose to 6.7 percent in May from 5.6 percent in April, driven mainly by higher food, transport and energy costs.
The increase has largely been attributed to disruptions in global oil supply chains following the Middle East conflict and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global petroleum shipments.
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来源：AllAfrica (https://allafrica.com/)
原文链接：https://allafrica.com/stories/202606110485.html
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