【全非资讯·加纳】 考验加纳 (Closer to news style)

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加纳正面临由中东地缘政治紧张局势引发的高油价和飙升的航运成本所带来的不断加剧的外部逆风。标准银行已大幅下调其对2026年经常账户顺差的预测，将预测值削减了约10亿美元，主要原因是石油进口成本飙升。这一调整凸显了这个非洲最大黄金生产国对全球能源市场冲击的脆弱性。\n\n作为石油净进口国，加纳正面临来自高企能源价格的重大逆风。在每桶65美元的油价下，石油进口约占商品总进口的29%，而在每桶90至95美元等更高价格水平下，这一比例会急剧上升。\n\n标准银行分析师Jibran Qureishi谈到了这场危机的影响。他表示：我们进口的石油仍然远远多于出口。这促使我们重新审视当前的经常账户顺差状况。我们最初认为加纳在2026年可以实现约50亿美元的顺差，但我们现在认为这一数字可能会减少约10亿美元。\n\n尽管进行了此次下调，加纳仍保持了预期的经常账户顺差，这是衡量外部稳定性的关键指标。即使考虑到高油价带来的预期恶化，该国经济预计也不会陷入逆差。\n\n通过WhatsApp和LinkedIn关注最新头条新闻\n\n一个缓和因素是，与其他非洲经济体相比，加纳对中东供应中断的直接敞口有限。该国仅有6%的化肥进口来自阿联酋，大部分供应来自俄罗斯和意大利。同样，与黄金并列为加纳传统创汇支柱的可可出口，对该地区的直接敞口也很小。\n\n这种与区域供应链的相对隔离为应对最坏情况提供了一定缓冲，尽管原油仍然是一个无法轻易通过多元化化解的重大脆弱点。\n\n在外汇市场方面，加纳市场承受了巨大压力，标准银行估计美元积压额约为10亿美元。塞地在现货市场走弱至兑1美元约11.65至11.70塞地，反映出硬通货供应紧俏。

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原文原文 / Original Text

Ghana faces mounting external headwinds from elevated oil prices and surging shipping costs triggered by Middle East geopolitical tensions. Standard Bank has sharply revised downward its current account surplus projection for 2026, slashing the forecast by approximately $1 billion, primarily driven by soaring petroleum import costs. The revisions underscore the vulnerability of Africa's largest gold producer to global energy market shocks.

As a net oil importer, Ghana faces significant headwinds from elevated energy prices. At an oil price of $65 per barrel, petroleum imports account for approximately 29 per cent of total goods imports, a proportion that rises sharply at higher price levels like $90-95 per barrel.

Standard Bank analyst Jibran Qureishi spoke about the impact of the crisis. He said, "We still import a lot more oil than we export. This has prompted us to re-look at our current account surplus position. We had initially thought that Ghana could print a surplus of about $5 billion for 2026, but we do now believe that this could reduce by about a billion dollars."

Despite this downward revision, Ghana maintains a projected current account surplus, a critical indicator of external stability. Even accounting for the anticipated deterioration from higher oil prices, the economy is expected to avoid sliding into deficit.

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One mitigating factor is Ghana's limited direct exposure to Middle East supply disruptions compared to other African economies. Only six per cent of the country's fertilizer imports originate from the UAE, with the majority of supplies sourced from Russia and Italy. Similarly, cocoa exports, Ghana's traditional revenue mainstay alongside gold, face minimal direct exposure to the region.

This relative insulation from regional supply chains provides some buffer against worst-case scenarios, though crude oil remains a significant vulnerability that cannot be easily diversified.

Regarding the forex exchange market, the Ghanaian market has come under significant pressure, with Standard Bank estimating a dollar backlog of approximately $1 billion. The cedi has weakened to trade around GH¢11. 65 - 11. 70 per dollar in the spot market, reflecting the tight supply of hard currency.

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