【全非资讯·刚果】 刚果（金）：对东部刚果（金）的监督会实现吗

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监测机制的首次部署是积极的，但目前的冲突形势应当为各方降低期望。\n\n旨在核实2025年11月达成的刚果民主共和国（DRC）东部停火协议的首次任务于8月24日在南基伍省（South Kivu）开始工作。但在支离破碎且高度极化的背景下，能否查明事实？该任务的调查结果能否改变交战方对继续战斗的成本、风险和收益的评估？\n\n扩大会议联合核实机制升级版（EJVM+）在DRC政府与刚果河联盟（AFC）/M23于8月在瑞士举行会谈后启动。卡塔尔、美国（US）和非洲联盟（AU）协助进行了斡旋。\n\n通过DRC与AFC/M23之间的多哈谈判建立的EJVM+，向停火监督与核实机制汇报工作，该机制负责监督协议执行并旨在为局势降温和对话创造条件。\n\n启动EJVM+是多哈框架下最具体的进展迹象之一，它提供了一种核实DRC政府与AFC/M23涉嫌违反停火协议行为的途径。\n\n然而，当前的冲突形势应当为各方降低期望。政府与AFC/M23均继续通过无人机袭击、招募兵员以及与其他武装组织结盟来争夺领土。交战方经常利用停火来重新部署或武装军队、在地面制造新的既成事实并巩固对领土的控制。\n\n该停火协议也未能将各方军队隔离开来并降低重新爆发战斗的风险，而这本可以通过划定清晰的停火线、撤军、集中驻扎和设立缓冲区来实现。

中文导读

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原文原文 / Original Text

The first deployment of the monitoring mechanism is positive, but current conflict conditions should temper expectations.

The first mission to verify the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) ceasefire agreed in November 2025 began its work in South Kivu on 24 August. But can facts be established in a fragmented and polarised context? And can the mission's findings change how warring parties assess the costs, risks and benefits of continued fighting?

The Expanded Joint Verification Mechanism Plus (EJVM+) was activated following August talks in Switzerland between the DRC government and Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC)/M23. Qatar, the United States (US) and African Union (AU) helped mediate.

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Established through the Doha negotiations between the DRC and AFC/M23, the EJVM+ reports to the Ceasefire Oversight and Verification Mechanism, which supervises implementation and aims to create conditions for de-escalation and dialogue.

Kickstarting the EJVM+ is one of the most tangible signs of progress under the Doha framework, providing a way to verify alleged ceasefire violations by the DRC government and AFC/M23.

However current conflict conditions should temper expectations. Both the government and AFC/M23 continue to contest territory through drone strikes, recruitment and alliances with other armed groups. Belligerents often use ceasefires to reposition or rearm forces, establish new 'facts' on the ground and consolidate territorial control.

The ceasefire also fails to separate forces and reduce the risk of renewed fighting, which could have been done by providing clear ceasefire lines, force withdrawals, cantonments and buffer zones.

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